Tuesday, October 28, 2008

WR Values

Studs:

1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, Age: 25

Fitz is pretty much your prototypical stud. He has every measurable you could ever desire from your WR1 and he is tied in long term to a pass happy offense. He has put up great numbers with or without Boldin on the field with him. He is absolutely the first WR off the board in any dynasty draft.

2. Andre Johnson, HOU, Age: 27

AJ was quiet the first few weeks of the season, but in the past 2 weeks he has reminded us just how talented he is; He has been ripping the ball out of defenders hands and carrying the Texans offense. Andre Johnson is another prototypical stud who is huge, fast and has good hands. Draft Johnson with confidence as he is in the prime of his career.

3. Reggie Wayne, IND, Age: 29

Wayne has phenomenal hands and can make great circus catches upon occasion. With Peyton Manning throwing him the rock he has years of high production ahead of him.

4. Brandon Marshall, DEN, Age: 24

Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler have become one of the most exciting QB/WR duos in the league to watch. Fortunately for fantasy footballers they are also one of the most solid and high scoring fantasy duos around. Marshall is fast, tall and has a great talent for finding holes in zones. There is some worry about his history of legal trouble but I think he is maturing and over the major problems - draft with caution if you are a nervous owner.

5. Calvin Johnson, DET, Age: 23

What a great receiver....what a terrible team. Calvin Johnson's measurables make Larry Fitzgerald look like a sissy. Megatron can run any route and make the catch when the game is on the line. The biggest knocks on CJ right now are QB issues. Kitna is clearly done in DET and Orlovsky is terrible. Drew Stanton should get a turn soon to lead the offense and has some serious potential. CJ's value will depend a lot on how the QB situation shakes out this offseason.

6. Steve Smith, CAR, Age: 29

So much fight in this WR. Steve Smith loves to knock people around on (and off) the field. Other than missing a game here and there due to suspensions for fighting Smith is an every week starter. He is blindingly fast and has great hands....his small stature doesn't hurt him.

Solid Starters:

7. Greg Jennings, GB, Age: 25

Deep threat and great rapport with his QB. Jennings has emerged as a top flight receiver and currently leads the league in receiving yardage. Aaron Rodgers looks for him when he really needs a big play, and Jennings doesn't dissapoint. Although he doesnt have the measurables that are desirable in a WR1, Jennings has "it" - he just makes plays for his team......and hopefully for yours.

8. Marques Colston, NO, Age: 25

Colston has come a long way since dominating Yahoo fantasy leagues as a TE (hah!) his rookie season. He does not possess great speed, but he is an amazing possession receiver. He is tall and has a nice vertical leap. He has incredible hands and catches everything near him. Colston is young and has a great QB situation.

9. Anquan Boldin, ARI, Age: 28

Boldin is a great possession receiver. He lacks speed but has the height and body mass to fight for any balls coming his direction. He has good hands and has shown that he will fight DB's for the ball in the endzone. Often targetted by Warner in the red zone, Boldin has a fairly high TD to reception ratio. Either Leinart or Warner will be able to get Boldin the ball enough to keep him in solid every week starter territory. Boldin is under contract with the Cards until 2010, and has enough talent to remain a top WR if and when he goes to another team.

10. Roddy White, ATL, Age: 26

Matt Ryan looks phenomenal and should only get better from here out. White has been his favorite target this season and this duo has serious upside.

11. Randy Moss, NE, Age: 31

Moss is going to be inconsistent the rest of the season with Cassell at the helm. As he showed last season he is still capable of totally dominating a defense on any given sunday. With Brady back next year Moss should return to putting up huge numbers.....but for how long? Moss turns 32 next year and although receivers are staying productive longer, I question how much longer he will be truly dominant physically.

12. Roy Williams, DAL, Age: 26

Roy Williams ranked over TO...OMG!! Williams is the long term replacement for Owens in Dallas. While TO is still playing for Dallas he will demand the premiere corners and any double coverage that is going to happen which will leave Williams with a lot of 1v1 action on the other side. Williams is an extremelly talented WR with great measurables. He has the speed to take slants to the house, but also the height and leaping ability to be a huge force in the red zone. Give it a few weeks, but I expect Williams to instantly become a favorite target for Romo and remain so for years to come.

13. Braylon Edwards, CLE, Age: 25

Off to a slow start this season, Edwards started to get his groove back in week 6. As long as Edwards is a very very talented WR. He needs to show more consistency catching the ball as he has been drop prone. Either Anderson of Quinn should keep Edwards fed enough to be a top 10 WR if Edwards can start hanging on to the ball. 

14. Dwayne Bowe, KC, Age: 24

Despite his terrible QB situation Bowe has been able to put up consistent, if underwhelming, numbers so far this season. Brodie Croyle is only a mild upgrade over the garbage QB's that KC has been putting behind center the past few weeks, but he looks for Bowe first every time. Bowe is an incredible talent with a TON of upside, but is limted by his QB situation. Good buy low candidate at this point since he can produce consistent WR3 numbers for you right now, but has the potential to rocket to a stud WR1 as soon as he gets an NFL caliber QB.

15. Terrell Owens, DAL, Age: 34

TO will certainly see less double coverage with Roy Williams in town, but that won't necessarily translate into consistent numbers for the aging WR. He will now have to share balls with Witten, Williams and Crayton (in the slot). He can crack off big plays anytime and will still have some huge games - if you think you can win this year then see if you can deal for him.....otherwise stay away due to age concerns.

16. Lee Evans, BUF, Age: 27

Well rounded receiver on a pedestrian offense. Evans has a great amount of talent but it remains to be seen if he will ever fully put it to use in Buffalo.

Shaky Starters:

17. Plaxico Burress, NYG, Age: 31

Eli Manning loves to throw to his towering WR1. Burress can get down the field and catch the ball over the head of most DBs in the league. Burress has behavioral issues and may face more discipline from his team, but if he can stop getting suspended you can count on him as an every week starter.

18. Santonio Holmes, PIT, Age: 24

When will Holmes live up the expectations his owners have for him? He is averaging 50 YPG and has 1 TD on the season. He has the talent to be a top tier WR but I want consistent production before I rank him any higher.

19. Wes Welker, NE, Age: 27

Welker is moved up 5 slots if your league is PPR. He is the master of quick slants and sharp cuts in his routes. He is very fast in short bursts and has good hands. He has suffered a smaller drop in value than his teammate Moss under Cassell because he provides a safety valve for the young QB. With Brady back next year Welker will remain a very solid WR2.

20. T.J. Houshmanzadeh, CIN, Age: 31

T.J. is having a pretty solid year considering the sorry state of the Bengals offense. I wouldnt actively trade for him, but if you own him I would recommend sitting tight for now until the offense turns around or you wont get value for him.

21. Santana Moss, WAS, Age: 29

Moss has a tendency to show up huge some games and then throw up a goose egg the next week. He has talent and a good young QB throwing to him, but needs to show consistency before he can be ranked any higher.

22. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ, Age: 26

Brett Favre was a nice change of pace this season from the limp armed Chad Pennington. Cotchery isn't an elite talent, but he can certainly get it done as a WR2 every week.

Solid Backups:

23. Desean Jackson, PHL, Age: 21

Looks like a legit talent. He is a little undersized but very fast. As long as he remains McNabb's top option in Philadelphia he should be a prett solid weekly start. Let's hope he doesn't throw away more TDs on the 1 yard line.

24. Vincent Jackson, SD, Age: 25

Jackson is 6'5 and presents a great target for his QB Rivers. He is coming along nicely as a WR after being taken in the second round in 2005. He is averaging almost 70 yards per game and is a good weekly WR2/3 play right now with upside.

25. Torry Holt, STL, Age: 32

There are still some significant issues with the Rams offense, but they seem to have turned a corner under their new head coach, Jim Haslett. Holt is only averaging 43 yards per game through 7 games, but expect his production to increase in the second half of the season. Take his age into account when trading for him.

26. Eddie Royal, DEN, Age: 22

Royal has 3 games with 9 receptions through 7 weeks. He is averaging 65 yards per game and will be a favorite target of Cutler for a long time with his excellent route running and soft hands. He is not playing like a rookie.

27. Chad Johnson, CIN, Age: 30

This is about as low as I can rank Ocho Cinco in good faith. I am not high on his potential for this season or the near future, which does not bode well for the 30 year old WR. He still has talent but needs a serious change of scenery or an overhaul of the Bengals offense to gain any significant chunk of value. Right now he is barely worth playing weekly as a WR3.

28. Hines Ward, PIT, Age: 32

Ward is still the go-to guy for Roethlisberger in most pressure aspects, including around the goal line. Ward is a complete WR who excels in both routes, blocking and all aspects of the game. He is a weekly WR2.

29. Bernard Berrian, MIN, Age: 27

Berrian is a speedy deep threat. His value is very dependant upon the QB situation in MIN. Look for whether Tarvaris Jackson comes back to start, or if the Vikings draft a high profile QB next year. If Jackson is back then he will lose significant value due to Jackson's inability to throw the deep ball effectively.

30. Laveranues Coles, NYJ, Age: 30
Coles is a solid weekly play with Favre at the helm.

Shaky Backups:

31. Anthony Gonzalez, IND, Age: 24

The timing between Gonzalez and Manning has improved, and Gonzalez is the heir apparent to the Harrison throne after this season (I don't think Marvin has much left in the tank). He is a solid, if unspectacular, player whose value is supported by the Manning's talent.

32. Josh Morgan, SF, Age: 23

There are veteran's who may have more weekly value right now, but if you are looking for a young WR to trade for before they make the leap to the upper echelon take a look at Morgan. He needs to clean up his routes but has shown big play ability. He is now a starter in the pass happy Martz SF offense.

33. Sidney Rice, MIN, Age: 22

Rice is an excellent red zone target. He has incredible hands and great leaping ability. So far this season he has been injured and not really involved in the Viking's passing game. He should bounce back in the second half and he is only 22 and in his second year in the league. He is a young talent to buy low right now.

34. Matt Jones, JAX, Age: 25

Matt Jones appears to have finally come around as a receiver. He is using his size to dominate DBs and his speed is still top tier. Matt Jones is an excellent receiver to target in a trade if you are looking for long term upside with a low cost. 

35. Donnie Avery, STL, Age: 22

This kid is FAST. I may have misjudged him in the preseason, but I wont do so again. He has great ball skills in the air and is usually the fastest player on the field. He is quickly becoming Bulger's #1 target.....we'll see if he keeps it up. 

36. Chris Chambers, SD, Age: 30

Chambers is a solid, big target for Phillip Rivers. He is having a pretty consistent season as a WR2/3 and is only limited by the emergence of other WR options in SD (mainly V. Jackson) and Antonio Gates. 


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