Waiver WR Gold

Ed/Op: Please stop worrying about your reciever corps come draft day.

Come draft day this year, all my league-mates told me I was in terrible shape at WR. They were hurt (Bobby Engram), old (Joey Galloway), or had giant question marks over their heads (Javon Walker, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian). I was advised to draft the likes of Steve Breaston, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, James Hardy, and Donny Avery.

16th, 32nd, and 33rd. That is how Jackson, Royal, and Breaston are stacking up this year in total fantasy points amongst all WRs. Overall, they are the 60th, 102nd, and 108th most productive players in my league.

On the other hand, three of the top 12 RBs are rookies. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton have quite literally hit the ground running. Their "transition period" into the NFL has been non-existent.

Stop wasting picks on WR rookies. Most of them will underperform for a long time.

I picked up Tim Hightower in the 1st round of this year's draft at 10'th overall, and Steve Slaton in the 2nd at 20'th. DeSean Jackson and James Hardy were drafted ahead of Slaton, and I believe it was a bad move for those guys to pass Slaton up.

I simply don't find value in drafting or trading for top-tier WRs anymore. Ensure you are solid at RB and QB first - then work with that base. I expect my wideouts to catch 80 yards worth of balls, and that's all I aim for. I manage to remain competitive and make the playoffs most years in my leagues despite not drafting high profile WR's.

FACT: A top-tier WR will (in most years - see Randy Moss 2007 as the exception) have a higher standard deviation in points scored from yardage (TDs are impossible to predict) than a middle-of-the-pack starting RB. I'm not posting the research here, but you can compare the std. dev. of Marvin Harrison in 2006 and Terrell Owens in 2007, against RBs who scored similar point totals and my point will be clear. This is basically a complicated way of me describing what you already know: RBs ARE MORE CONSISTENT THEN WRs. When it comes down to it, points don't matter, wins do. Consistency gets you wins.

FACT: An undrafted waiver wire available WR will earn 700-900 yards with 6-8 TDs every year. There are ways to find these guys before the mid season mark.

I have found ways to add these guys year after year. Here are some WR pick-ups I have made that paid off over the last 4 years in one of my most competitive leagues.

2004: David Patten: 800 yards, 7 TDs. Muhsin Muhammad: 1405 yards, 16TDs.
2005: Terry Glenn: 1136 yards, 7 TDs.
2006: Chris Henry: 605 yards, 9 TDs. Bernard Berrian: 775 yards, 6 TDs.
2007: Bobby Engram: 1147 yards, 6 TDs.

Here are some potential finds out there for this year that may still be available on your waiver wire.

1) Greg Camarillo, MIA: He is the only WR in Miami with a brain. Pennington has a noodle arm and lacks the ability to throw the deep ball. He often goes to his medium route recievers because he had success with them during his Jets tenure.

2) Mike Walker, JAX: He will not post the numbers that he should because of a knee infection / injury, but he has a future in JAX and I'd hold on to him. His breakout game in week 5 was no fluke. Matt Jones is an idiot (albeit with insane raw talent) and he is now suspended because of his cocaine problem. I believe this will pave the way for Walker to step in and upstage the unimpressive Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams.

3) Justin Gage, TEN: Another talent hampered by injuries, he STILL leads all Titans' WRs in yardage and receptions, despite not playing since week 4. They are missing him, and will not have the luxury of playing against the accommodating run defenses as they faced in KC. Defenses will do what they can to stack the box against the Johnson / White Slash 'n Smash Show. Someone in the WR corps will be the benefactor. See if Gage is still available or has been dropped in your league since he is in a prime position to benefit.

4) Bobby Wade, MIN: Despite having Bernard Berrian, I have almost picked this guy up several times before thinking better of it. Totally underneath the radar, Wade has caught 7, 8, 4,and 5 balls in the last 4 games for 75, 64, 71, and 60 yards. Imagine what will happen when the Vikings find a real QB.

WRs who catch 2 balls for 80 yards in any given week aren't worth wasting moves on. You want to find guys who are getting targeted, and are catching 5-7 balls consistently. Look for guys who are a bright spot in an otherwise doomed passing offense. Look for older but trusted targets in a injury plagued offense. Finally, seek out younger guys who have raw talent that guarantees them a roster spot - guys like Bernard Berrian and Chris Henry.

Often times you must mortgage your future to win your dynasty league. When the playoffs are in your sights and you believe you can almost win, trade your spare RB for an older, yet still productive WR to make your team complete. Muhsin Muhammad, Hines Ward, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Issac Bruce are all top-25 recievers who you can easily get for a reasonable price.

I'll close with my starting WR's for Week 7 in my main league:
WR1: Bernard Berrian (81 + TD)
WR2: Greg Camarillo (74)

(Compare to Jennings: 32 yards, Wayne: 24 yards, Owens: 31 yards)

Neither guy was highly touted coming into the season but both are putting up numbers for me.

This is my first article here as a contributing author. More to come in future weeks:

- Adam Saslow