Saturday, October 18, 2008

Running Back Values

Studs:

1. Frank Gore, SF, Age: 25

There is no back playing better than Gore. He is incredibly consistent, and with Mike Martz at the helm he is looking like the new Marshall Faulk. He is involved in both the running and passing game in SF. He managed to gain 1500 yards from scrimmage last year in the leagues worst offense. He will get you a ton of points week in and week out.

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN, Age: 23

Adrian Peterson is having a quiet year so far. He has not repeated the heroics of his rookie season, but I am not worried about his long term value. He is probably the most talented RB in the league, and if he was on a better offense he would certainly be ranked #1.

3. Marion Barber, DAL, Age: 25

Marion Barber is locked into a long term contract in what is probably the most talented offense in football. The addition of Roy Williams will only add to the opportunites the Cowboys will be able to create in the running game. There is some worry that talented rookie RB Felix Jones will steal carries, but I see the split as 70/30 from here out. Barber is also very active in the passing game.

4. Steven Jackson, STL, Age: 25

What a beast. If the Rams can get it together then Jackson will win you seasons single handedly. Unfortunately the Rams don't have it together and Jackson is getting as much as he can each week - usually 100-120 combined yards and a TD every now and then. Solid RB2 numbers for sure, but there is so much potential here....

Strong Starters:

5. Marshawn Lynch, BUF, Age: 22

You can't really go wrong taking Lynch. He is a super solid RB on a team that likes to run. He hasn't put up mind blowing numbers, but there are few RB's offering such steady production. His young age is another thing to love about the Beast.

6. Ladainian Tomlinson, SD, Age: 29

LT is not looking like himself. Maybe its the turf toe, maybe he is just getting warmed up.....the age issue is certainly a concern. I love a health productive LT, but I'm not sure I see him ever becoming truly dominant again.

7. Brian Westbrook, PHL, Age: 29

Injuries, injuries, injuries. Owning Westbrook is such a hassle. He is hugely productive when he plays, but he is injured far too often. He is a huge part of the Eagles running and passing game, so he is a bit more valuable in PPR leagues.

8. Ronnie Brown, MIA, Age: 26

Brown is running with great patience, and does not appear to have lost any of his impressive lateral mobility. Many people forget how dominant he was last season before his injury, and he is on a mission this season to remind them.

9.Maurice Jones Drew, JAC, Age: 23

MJD is a well rounded back. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and a voracious blocker. He is a 3 down back who runs with immense power and speed. Since entering the league only LT and Marion Barber have scored more TDs than the Mighty Mouse. With Fred Taylor aging MJD is primed to take over the load in the near future.

10. Clinton Portis, WAS, Age: 27

Portis is a stud RB. For some reason he is unfairly maligned in fantasy circles for various reasons. He is part of a revamped Redskins offense, and his numbers under Jim Zorn so far have been spectacular. He is young enough to draft as a core part of your team.

11. Reggie Bush, NO, Age: 24

With Bush you get a good staring WR and half a RB as a sweetener. He is PPR gold, and would probably be ranked in the top five for those leagues. He has the potential to rip off a giant play at any time and is active in all aspects of the Saints game including punt returns (where he has shown a penchant for scoring TDs).

Shaky Starters:

12. Joseph Addai, IND, Age: 25

I have never been a fan of Addai as a RB. He is totally underwhelming in pretty much every aspect. He is however a nice fit for the Colts offense. As long as he remains a Colt he will be very productive but just remember that he is a product of the system there and not a great talent on his own. If he is ever traded he will lose an immense amount value.

13. Chris Johnson, TEN, Age: 23

Chris Johnson has quickly taken hold of the starting RB job for a Titans offense which has been starved of playmakers in recent years. Johnson is positively electric as a runner, and has the speed to stretch defenses and get to the edge quickly. He is also a capable runner between the tackles, and should become more involved in the offense as a receiver soon. Westbrook lite in the making.

14. Michael Turner, ATL, Age: 26

Turner is a load to take down. He weighs 244 pounds but has breakaway speed. With his trade to the Falcons this offseason he has really jumped into the spotlight with a few huge games....unfortuntely has has also failed to show up in games against solid defenses. If Turner can show the ability to put up big numbers against legit defenses he has all the physical tools to climb the rankings.

15. Matt Forte, CHI, Age: 22

The Bears coaches love this kid. He can catch the ball very well and is a more slippery runner than I had him pegged for coming out of college. He is getting a huge workload right now that will probably have to get pared back, but he is in a great situation right now on a team that loves to run. His recent drop in YPC is something to keep an eye on.

16. Jonathan Stewart, CAR, Age: 21

Stewart weighs 235 pounds and runs a 4.48 time in the 40. He is fast, powerful and shifty and was drafted into a great situation in Carolina. He is currently splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams, but since he gets most of the goal line work he has startable value right now, with a lot of upside for the future.

17. Willie Parker, PIT, Age: 27

Parker has shown he can still run, but he now has to worry about long term job security with the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers love running the ball, and although Willie Parker is not the prototypical Steelers back he has been a nice fit for them.

Strong Backups:

18. Brandon Jacobs, NYG, Age: 26

Jacobs is so hard to tackle once he gets going; Just ask Laron Landry. He is running with power but there are injury concerns due to his upright running style and history. He is also part of a commitee backfield for the Giants, which limits his upside.

19. Darren Mcfadden, OAK, Age: 21

I am not a Mcfadden believer, but he does have some undeniable talent. If he can manage to stop falling down when being arm tackled then he might have a bright future. Right now he is great at exploiting gaping holes, but bad at creating plays on his own. Running a 4.33 in the 40 is impressive for a back his size and his blazing speed is probably his single best attribute.

20. Willis McGahee, BAL, Age: 27

McGahee has not looked like his usual slashing self of late. Injuries have slowed him some this season, but look for him to rebound in the second half of the season.

21. Jamal Lewis, CLE, Age: 29

Jamal Lewis is often overlooked by fantasy players. He has been running very well recently and looks rejuvenated in the Browns offense. He is being given ample carries and has been productive this season averaging 3.6 YPC so far.

22. Steve Slaton, HOU, Age: 22

I viewed Slaton as a third down back when he came into the league. He has been steadily working to prove me wrong, but I am apprehensive when I look at his carry log each game. It is typically along the lines of 1, 2, -1, 0, 3, 1, 22 - which gives him 4 YPC but without that long gain he was mostly useless. He is a boom or bust pick, but he is playing well right now and worth starting every week.

Shaky Backups:

22. Felix Jones, DAL, Age: 21

Averaging a ridiculous 8.9 YPC this season, Felix Jones has been a great compliment to the gutsy running of Barber. Jones is a speedster who excels at getting to the edge and breaking it long. He will not have a full load anytime soon, but he is a capable bye week fill in with large upside.

23. Ryan Grant, GB, 25

Grant was expected by many to be a top 10 RB this season. So far he has averaged 3.4 YPC, less than 60 yards per game and has registered 0 TDs. Although there is still some nice upside with Grant, he needs to start producing again before I can rank him higher.

24. Larry Johnson, KC, Age: 28

I am not a fan of LJ's future - I see him falling much as Shaun Alexander did in 2007. Although LJ has had a couple nice games this season, he has had plenty of stinkers. His 4 most recent game YPC averages are 1.8, 5.0, 7.1 and 0.3. This sort of wild inconsistency is both a product of the terrible offensive line play in KC as well as Johnson breaking down from his high career workload. Start him if you need him, but I would recommend selling while he still has some value left.

25. Tim Hightower, ARI, Age: 22

Hightower is the heir apparent to the throne in Arizona. Edge is still getting the lions share of the carries, but has lost goal line work to the rookie and Hightower seems to have the ability to handle the load when his time comes. For right now its nice that he has startable flex value due to his goal line work.

26. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT, Age: 21

I think Mendenhall has a bright future as the feature back of the Steelers. He has fantastic lateral mobility coupled with serious between the tackles power. He has great vision and should be a very solid starter for a long time once he wins the job. I should probably rank him higher, but his shoulder injury and the entrenched status of Parker as the starter leave him this low.

27. DeAngelo Williams, CAR, Age: 25

Williams has a lot of talent. He is more of a speed back than a power runner, but he makes a nice compliment to Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. The Panthers will try and hold onto both runners if possible, and if the situation remains as it is then Williams will be a flex RB play for the foreseeable future. If he gets traded to a RB needy team in the offseason he could see a nice bump in value.

Stash Em:

28. Kevin Smith, DET, Age: 21

Kevin Smith was unable to hold off Rudi Johnson for the starting role in Detroit and is now stuck in a committee. I like Smiths running style, and although he isn't the fastest runner he has good vision and lateral cutting ability. He fits in well with the zone blocking scheme the Lions are trying to make work right now, and I think he should outright win the starting job next year.

29. Earnest Graham, TB, Age: 28

Graham is a solid enough running back. He is average in all areas in terms of physical skills, but he really plays hard and the coaching staff in Tampa are clearly comfortable relying on him to carry the ball. He has a low upside but should get you 6-10 points a week if you need to plug him in.

30. Thomas Jones, NYJ, Age: 30

Jones is a well rounded, solid running back. He gets around 16-20 carries a game and is productive with them, averaging 3.8 YPC this season with 3 TDs. His age is a concern at this point, but you didnt draft him expecting him to be a long term stud right?

31. Julius Jones, SEA, Age: 27

JJ has had a couple decent games this season for the Seahawks, but mostly he has shown why he lost his job in Dallas. He is an average back, who lacks breakaway speed or significant power.

32. Ray Rice, BAL, Age: 21

Rice had a really nice preaseason but the coaching staff does not seem to have much faith in him yet. He is currently the RB3 for the Ravens as the surprising Le'ron Mcclain has taken over the RB2 duties. Rice is a good all around player but lacks serious burner speed. A good way to think of him is that he is a "gamer"....he plays hard and can do a lot of things well but he will never be a stud.

33. Laurence Maroney, NE, Age: 23

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Maroney was on a lot of top 10 RB lists last year, but he has fallen off in a big way. He is getting 5-8 carries a game and is part of 4 person committee running the ball for the Patriots right now. I would stay far away unless you really love his physical talents (which are prodigous), in which case buy him on the cheap and stash him on your bench while you pray for him to get traded.

Long Shots:

34. Lendale White, TEN, Age: 25

Color me unimpressed by White and his plodding ways. He is unlikely to regain a starting position in the league now or in the future, which limits him to a short yardage, 3rd down role. He will score you a TD per week fairly consistently this season as a flex play, but I would sell "high" while he has value as a TD vulture.

35. Michael Bush, OAK, Age: 24

Bush is huge, quick and can catch the ball extremelly well out of the backfield. He is a well rounded back but currently stuck behind Fargas and Mcfadden in the black hole that is Oakland. Grab him and hold him long term - the Chargers tried to trade for him this season at the deadline but were rebuffed......chances are good he'll get traded to a RB needy team on draft day.

36. Ryan Torain, Den, Age: 22

Ryan "the Train" Torain is looking like the next big RB to come out of Denver. When I watch him run I see him as a 1 cut and go type guy. This is perfect for Denver's zone blocking scheme and I think we will see some great things from him once he comes back from his elbow injury. Keep a close eye on him in coming weeks.

More rankings to come soon........

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