Waiver WR Gold

Ed/Op: Please stop worrying about your reciever corps come draft day.

Come draft day this year, all my league-mates told me I was in terrible shape at WR. They were hurt (Bobby Engram), old (Joey Galloway), or had giant question marks over their heads (Javon Walker, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian). I was advised to draft the likes of Steve Breaston, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, James Hardy, and Donny Avery.

16th, 32nd, and 33rd. That is how Jackson, Royal, and Breaston are stacking up this year in total fantasy points amongst all WRs. Overall, they are the 60th, 102nd, and 108th most productive players in my league.

On the other hand, three of the top 12 RBs are rookies. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton have quite literally hit the ground running. Their "transition period" into the NFL has been non-existent.

Stop wasting picks on WR rookies. Most of them will underperform for a long time.

I picked up Tim Hightower in the 1st round of this year's draft at 10'th overall, and Steve Slaton in the 2nd at 20'th. DeSean Jackson and James Hardy were drafted ahead of Slaton, and I believe it was a bad move for those guys to pass Slaton up.

I simply don't find value in drafting or trading for top-tier WRs anymore. Ensure you are solid at RB and QB first - then work with that base. I expect my wideouts to catch 80 yards worth of balls, and that's all I aim for. I manage to remain competitive and make the playoffs most years in my leagues despite not drafting high profile WR's.

FACT: A top-tier WR will (in most years - see Randy Moss 2007 as the exception) have a higher standard deviation in points scored from yardage (TDs are impossible to predict) than a middle-of-the-pack starting RB. I'm not posting the research here, but you can compare the std. dev. of Marvin Harrison in 2006 and Terrell Owens in 2007, against RBs who scored similar point totals and my point will be clear. This is basically a complicated way of me describing what you already know: RBs ARE MORE CONSISTENT THEN WRs. When it comes down to it, points don't matter, wins do. Consistency gets you wins.

FACT: An undrafted waiver wire available WR will earn 700-900 yards with 6-8 TDs every year. There are ways to find these guys before the mid season mark.

I have found ways to add these guys year after year. Here are some WR pick-ups I have made that paid off over the last 4 years in one of my most competitive leagues.

2004: David Patten: 800 yards, 7 TDs. Muhsin Muhammad: 1405 yards, 16TDs.
2005: Terry Glenn: 1136 yards, 7 TDs.
2006: Chris Henry: 605 yards, 9 TDs. Bernard Berrian: 775 yards, 6 TDs.
2007: Bobby Engram: 1147 yards, 6 TDs.

Here are some potential finds out there for this year that may still be available on your waiver wire.

1) Greg Camarillo, MIA: He is the only WR in Miami with a brain. Pennington has a noodle arm and lacks the ability to throw the deep ball. He often goes to his medium route recievers because he had success with them during his Jets tenure.

2) Mike Walker, JAX: He will not post the numbers that he should because of a knee infection / injury, but he has a future in JAX and I'd hold on to him. His breakout game in week 5 was no fluke. Matt Jones is an idiot (albeit with insane raw talent) and he is now suspended because of his cocaine problem. I believe this will pave the way for Walker to step in and upstage the unimpressive Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams.

3) Justin Gage, TEN: Another talent hampered by injuries, he STILL leads all Titans' WRs in yardage and receptions, despite not playing since week 4. They are missing him, and will not have the luxury of playing against the accommodating run defenses as they faced in KC. Defenses will do what they can to stack the box against the Johnson / White Slash 'n Smash Show. Someone in the WR corps will be the benefactor. See if Gage is still available or has been dropped in your league since he is in a prime position to benefit.

4) Bobby Wade, MIN: Despite having Bernard Berrian, I have almost picked this guy up several times before thinking better of it. Totally underneath the radar, Wade has caught 7, 8, 4,and 5 balls in the last 4 games for 75, 64, 71, and 60 yards. Imagine what will happen when the Vikings find a real QB.

WRs who catch 2 balls for 80 yards in any given week aren't worth wasting moves on. You want to find guys who are getting targeted, and are catching 5-7 balls consistently. Look for guys who are a bright spot in an otherwise doomed passing offense. Look for older but trusted targets in a injury plagued offense. Finally, seek out younger guys who have raw talent that guarantees them a roster spot - guys like Bernard Berrian and Chris Henry.

Often times you must mortgage your future to win your dynasty league. When the playoffs are in your sights and you believe you can almost win, trade your spare RB for an older, yet still productive WR to make your team complete. Muhsin Muhammad, Hines Ward, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Issac Bruce are all top-25 recievers who you can easily get for a reasonable price.

I'll close with my starting WR's for Week 7 in my main league:
WR1: Bernard Berrian (81 + TD)
WR2: Greg Camarillo (74)

(Compare to Jennings: 32 yards, Wayne: 24 yards, Owens: 31 yards)

Neither guy was highly touted coming into the season but both are putting up numbers for me.

This is my first article here as a contributing author. More to come in future weeks:

- Adam Saslow

Wide Receiver Values

Studs:

1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, Age: 25

Fitz is pretty much your prototypical stud. He has every measurable you could ever desire from your WR1 and he is tied in long term to a pass happy offense. He has put up great numbers with or without Boldin on the field with him. He is absolutely the first WR off the board in any dynasty draft.

2. Andre Johnson, HOU, Age: 27

AJ was quiet the first few weeks of the season, but in the past 2 weeks he has reminded us just how talented he is; He has been ripping the ball out of defenders hands and carrying the Texans offense. Andre Johnson is another prototypical stud who is huge, fast and has good hands. Draft Johnson with confidence as he is in the prime of his career.

3. Reggie Wayne, IND, Age: 29

Wayne has phenomenal hands and can make great circus catches upon occasion. With Peyton Manning throwing him the rock he has years of high production ahead of him.

4. Brandon Marshall, DEN, Age: 24

Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler have become one of the most exciting QB/WR duos in the league to watch. Fortunately for fantasy footballers they are also one of the most solid and high scoring fantasy duos around. Marshall is fast, tall and has a great talent for finding holes in zones. There is some worry about his history of legal trouble but I think he is maturing and over the major problems - draft with caution if you are a nervous owner.

5. Calvin Johnson, DET, Age: 23

What a great receiver....what a terrible team. Calvin Johnson's measurables make Larry Fitzgerald look like a sissy. Megatron can run any route and make the catch when the game is on the line. The biggest knocks on CJ right now are QB issues. Kitna is clearly done in DET and Orlovsky is terrible. Drew Stanton should get a turn soon to lead the offense and has some serious potential. CJ's value will depend a lot on how the QB situation shakes out this offseason.

6. Marques Colston, NO, Age: 25

Colston has come a long way since dominating Yahoo fantasy leagues as a TE (hah!) his rookie season. He does not possess great speed, but he is an amazing possession receiver. He is tall and has a nice vertical leap. He has incredible hands and catches everything near him. Colston is young and has a great QB situation.

Solid Starters:

7. Greg Jennings, GB, Age: 25

Deep threat and great rapport with his QB. Jennings has emerged as a top flight receiver and currently leads the league in receiving yardage. Aaron Rodgers looks for him when he really needs a big play, and Jennings doesn't dissapoint. Although he doesnt have the measurables that are desirable in a WR1, Jennings has "it" - he just makes plays for his team......and hopefully for yours.

8. Steve Smith, CAR, Age: 29

So much fight in this WR. Steve Smith loves to knock people around on (and off) the field. Other than missing a game here and there due to suspensions for fighting Smith is an every week starter. He is blindingly fast and has great hands....his small stature doesn't hurt him.

9. Anquan Boldin, ARI, Age: 28

Boldin is a great possession receiver. He lacks speed but has the height and body mass to fight for any balls coming his direction. He has good hands and has shown that he will fight DB's for the ball in the endzone. Often targetted by Warner in the red zone, Boldin has a fairly high TD to reception ratio. Either Leinart or Warner will be able to get Boldin the ball enough to keep him in solid every week starter territory. Boldin is under contract with the Cards until 2010, and has enough talent to remain a top WR if and when he goes to another team.

10. Braylon Edwards, CLE, Age: 25

Off to a slow start this season, Edwards started to get his groove back in week 6. As long as Edwards is a very very talented WR. He needs to show more consistency catching the ball as he has been drop prone. Either Anderson of Quinn should keep Edwards fed enough to be a top 10 WR.

11. Randy Moss, NE, Age: 31

Moss is going to be inconsistent the rest of the season with Cassell at the helm. As he showed last season he is still capable of totally dominating a defense on any given sunday. With Brady back next year Moss should return to putting up huge numbers.....but for how long? Moss turns 32 next year and although receivers are staying productive longer, I question how much longer he will be truly dominant physically.

12. Roy Williams, DAL, Age: 26

Roy Williams ranked over TO...OMG!! Williams is the long term replacement for Owens in Dallas. While TO is still playing for Dallas he will demand the premiere corners and any double coverage that is going to happen which will leave Williams with a lot of 1v1 action on the other side. Williams is an extremelly talented WR with great measurables. He has the speed to take slants to the house, but also the height and leaping ability to be a huge force in the red zone. Give it a few weeks, but I expect Williams to instantly become a favorite target for Romo and remain so for years to come.

13. Roddy White, ATL, Age: 26

Matt Ryan looks phenomenal and should only get better from here out. White has been his favorite target this season and this duo has serious upside.

14. Dwayne Bowe, KC, Age: 24

Despite his terrible QB situation Bowe has been able to put up consistent, if underwhelming, numbers so far this season. Brodie Croyle is only a mild upgrade over the garbage QB's that KC has been putting behind center the past few weeks, but he looks for Bowe first every time. Bowe is an incredible talent with a TON of upside, but is limted by his QB situation. Good buy low candidate at this point since he can produce consistent WR3 numbers for you right now, but has the potential to rocket to a stud WR1 as soon as he gets an NFL caliber QB.

15. Terrell Owens, DAL, Age: 34

TO will certainly see less double coverage with Roy Williams in town, but that won't necessarily translate into consistent numbers for the aging WR. He will now have to share balls with Witten, Williams and Crayton (in the slot). He can crack off big plays anytime and will still have some huge games - if you think you can win this year then see if you can deal for him.....otherwise stay away due to age concerns.

16. Lee Evans, BUF, Age: 27

Well rounded receiver on a pedestrian offense. Evans has a great amount of talent but it remains to be seen if he will ever fully put it to use in Buffalo.

Shaky Starters:

17. Plaxico Burress, NYG, Age: 31

Eli Manning loves to throw to his towering WR1. Burress can get down the field and catch the ball over the head of most DBs in the league. Burress has behavioral issues and may face more discipline from his team, but if he can stop getting suspended you can count on him as an every week starter.

18. Santonio Holmes, PIT, Age: 24

When will Holmes live up the expectations his owners have for him? He is averaging 50 YPG and has 1 TD on the season. He has the talent to be a top tier WR but I want consistent production before I rank him any higher.

19. Wes Welker, NE, Age: 27

Welker is moved up 5 slots if your league is PPR. He is the master of quick slants and sharp cuts in his routes. He is very fast in short bursts and has good hands. He has suffered a smaller drop in value than his teammate Moss under Cassell because he provides a safety valve for the young QB. With Brady back next year Welker will remain a very solid WR2.

20. T.J. Houshmanzadeh, CIN, Age: 31

T.J. is having a pretty solid year considering the sorry state of the Bengals offense. I wouldnt actively trade for him, but if you own him I would recommend sitting tight for now until the offense turns around or you wont get value for him.

21. Santana Moss, WAS, Age: 29

Moss has a tendency to show up huge some games and then throw up a goose egg the next week. He has talent and a good young QB throwing to him, but needs to show consistency before he can be ranked any higher.

22. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ, Age: 26

Brett Favre was a nice change of pace this season from the limp armed Chad Pennington. Cotchery isn't an elite talent, but he can certainly get it done as a WR2 every week.

Solid Backups:

23. Desean Jackson, PHL, Age: 21

Looks like a legit talent. He is a little undersized but very fast. As long as he remains McNabb's top option in Philadelphia he should be a prett solid weekly start. Let's hope he doesn't throw away more TDs on the 1 yard line.

24. Vincent Jackson, SD, Age: 25

Jackson is 6'5 and presents a great target for his QB Rivers. He is coming along nicely as a WR after being taken in the second round in 2005. He is averaging almost 70 yards per game and is a good weekly WR2/3 play right now with upside.

25. Torry Holt, STL, Age: 32

There are still some significant issues with the Rams offense, but they seem to have turned a corner under their new head coach, Jim Haslett. Holt is only averaging 43 yards per game through 7 games, but expect his production to increase in the second half of the season. Take his age into account when trading for him.

26. Eddie Royal, DEN, Age: 22

Royal has 3 games with 9 receptions through 7 weeks. He is averaging 65 yards per game and will be a favorite target of Cutler for a long time with his excellent route running and soft hands. He is not playing like a rookie.

27. Chad Johnson, CIN, Age: 30

This is about as low as I can rank Ocho Cinco in good faith. I am not high on his potential for this season or the near future, which does not bode well for the 30 year old WR. He still has talent but needs a serious change of scenery or an overhaul of the Bengals offense to gain any significant chunk of value. Right now he is barely worth playing weekly as a WR3.

28. Hines Ward, PIT, Age: 32

Ward is still the go-to guy for Roethlisberger in most pressure aspects, including around the goal line. Ward is a complete WR who excels in both routes, blocking and all aspects of the game. He is a weekly WR2.

29. Bernard Berrian, MIN, Age: 27

Berrian is a speedy deep threat. His value is very dependant upon the QB situation in MIN. Look for whether Tarvaris Jackson comes back to start, or if the Vikings draft a high profile QB next year. If Jackson is back then he will lose significant value due to Jackson's inability to throw the deep ball effectively.

30. Laveranues Coles, NYJ, Age: 30

Coles is a solid weekly play with Favre at the helm.

Shaky Backups:

31. Anthony Gonzalez, IND, Age: 24

The timing between Gonzalez and Manning has improved, and Gonzalez is the heir apparent to the Harrison throne after this season (I don't think Marvin has much left in the tank). He is a solid, if unspectacular, player whose value is supported by the Manning's talent.

32. Josh Morgan, SF, Age: 23

There are veteran's who may have more weekly value right now, but if you are looking for a young WR to trade for before they make the leap to the upper echelon take a look at Morgan. He needs to clean up his routes but has shown big play ability. He is now a starter in the pass happy Martz SF offense.

33. Sidney Rice, MIN, Age: 22

Rice is an excellent red zone target. He has incredible hands and great leaping ability. So far this season he has been injured and not really involved in the Viking's passing game. He should bounce back in the second half and he is only 22 and in his second year in the league. He is a young talent to buy low right now.

Running Back Values

Studs:

1. Frank Gore, SF, Age: 25

There is no back playing better than Gore. He is incredibly consistent, and with Mike Martz at the helm he is looking like the new Marshall Faulk. He is involved in both the running and passing game in SF. He managed to gain 1500 yards from scrimmage last year in the leagues worst offense. He will get you a ton of points week in and week out.

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN, Age: 23

Adrian Peterson is having a quiet year so far. He has not repeated the heroics of his rookie season, but I am not worried about his long term value. He is probably the most talented RB in the league, and if he was on a better offense he would certainly be ranked #1.

3. Marion Barber, DAL, Age: 25

Marion Barber is locked into a long term contract in what is probably the most talented offense in football. The addition of Roy Williams will only add to the opportunites the Cowboys will be able to create in the running game. There is some worry that talented rookie RB Felix Jones will steal carries, but I see the split as 70/30 from here out. Barber is also very active in the passing game.

4. Steven Jackson, STL, Age: 25

What a beast. If the Rams can get it together then Jackson will win you seasons single handedly. Unfortunately the Rams don't have it together and Jackson is getting as much as he can each week - usually 100-120 combined yards and a TD every now and then. Solid RB2 numbers for sure, but there is so much potential here....

Strong Starters:

5. Marshawn Lynch, BUF, Age: 22

You can't really go wrong taking Lynch. He is a super solid RB on a team that likes to run. He hasn't put up mind blowing numbers, but there are few RB's offering such steady production. His young age is another thing to love about the Beast.

6. Ladainian Tomlinson, SD, Age: 29

LT is not looking like himself. Maybe its the turf toe, maybe he is just getting warmed up.....the age issue is certainly a concern. I love a health productive LT, but I'm not sure I see him ever becoming truly dominant again.

7. Brian Westbrook, PHL, Age: 29

Injuries, injuries, injuries. Owning Westbrook is such a hassle. He is hugely productive when he plays, but he is injured far too often. He is a huge part of the Eagles running and passing game, so he is a bit more valuable in PPR leagues.

8. Ronnie Brown, MIA, Age: 26

Brown is running with great patience, and does not appear to have lost any of his impressive lateral mobility. Many people forget how dominant he was last season before his injury, and he is on a mission this season to remind them.

9.Maurice Jones Drew, JAC, Age: 23

MJD is a well rounded back. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and a voracious blocker. He is a 3 down back who runs with immense power and speed. Since entering the league only LT and Marion Barber have scored more TDs than the Mighty Mouse. With Fred Taylor aging MJD is primed to take over the load in the near future.

10. Clinton Portis, WAS, Age: 27

Portis is a stud RB. For some reason he is unfairly maligned in fantasy circles for various reasons. He is part of a revamped Redskins offense, and his numbers under Jim Zorn so far have been spectacular. He is young enough to draft as a core part of your team.

11. Reggie Bush, NO, Age: 24

With Bush you get a good staring WR and half a RB as a sweetener. He is PPR gold, and would probably be ranked in the top five for those leagues. He has the potential to rip off a giant play at any time and is active in all aspects of the Saints game including punt returns (where he has shown a penchant for scoring TDs).

Shaky Starters:

12. Joseph Addai, IND, Age: 25

I have never been a fan of Addai as a RB. He is totally underwhelming in pretty much every aspect. He is however a nice fit for the Colts offense. As long as he remains a Colt he will be very productive but just remember that he is a product of the system there and not a great talent on his own. If he is ever traded he will lose an immense amount value.

13. Chris Johnson, TEN, Age: 23

Chris Johnson has quickly taken hold of the starting RB job for a Titans offense which has been starved of playmakers in recent years. Johnson is positively electric as a runner, and has the speed to stretch defenses and get to the edge quickly. He is also a capable runner between the tackles, and should become more involved in the offense as a receiver soon. Westbrook lite in the making.

14. Michael Turner, ATL, Age: 26

Turner is a load to take down. He weighs 244 pounds but has breakaway speed. With his trade to the Falcons this offseason he has really jumped into the spotlight with a few huge games....unfortuntely has has also failed to show up in games against solid defenses. If Turner can show the ability to put up big numbers against legit defenses he has all the physical tools to climb the rankings.

15. Matt Forte, CHI, Age: 22

The Bears coaches love this kid. He can catch the ball very well and is a more slippery runner than I had him pegged for coming out of college. He is getting a huge workload right now that will probably have to get pared back, but he is in a great situation right now on a team that loves to run. His recent drop in YPC is something to keep an eye on.

16. Jonathan Stewart, CAR, Age: 21

Stewart weighs 235 pounds and runs a 4.48 time in the 40. He is fast, powerful and shifty and was drafted into a great situation in Carolina. He is currently splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams, but since he gets most of the goal line work he has startable value right now, with a lot of upside for the future.

17. Willie Parker, PIT, Age: 27

Parker has shown he can still run, but he now has to worry about long term job security with the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers love running the ball, and although Willie Parker is not the prototypical Steelers back he has been a nice fit for them.

Strong Backups:

18. Brandon Jacobs, NYG, Age: 26

Jacobs is so hard to tackle once he gets going; Just ask Laron Landry. He is running with power but there are injury concerns due to his upright running style and history. He is also part of a commitee backfield for the Giants, which limits his upside.

19. Darren Mcfadden, OAK, Age: 21

I am not a Mcfadden believer, but he does have some undeniable talent. If he can manage to stop falling down when being arm tackled then he might have a bright future. Right now he is great at exploiting gaping holes, but bad at creating plays on his own. Running a 4.33 in the 40 is impressive for a back his size and his blazing speed is probably his single best attribute.

20. Willis McGahee, BAL, Age: 27

McGahee has not looked like his usual slashing self of late. Injuries have slowed him some this season, but look for him to rebound in the second half of the season.

21. Jamal Lewis, CLE, Age: 29

Jamal Lewis is often overlooked by fantasy players. He has been running very well recently and looks rejuvenated in the Browns offense. He is being given ample carries and has been productive this season averaging 3.6 YPC so far.

22. Steve Slaton, HOU, Age: 22

I viewed Slaton as a third down back when he came into the league. He has been steadily working to prove me wrong, but I am apprehensive when I look at his carry log each game. It is typically along the lines of 1, 2, -1, 0, 3, 1, 22 - which gives him 4 YPC but without that long gain he was mostly useless. He is a boom or bust pick, but he is playing well right now and worth starting every week.

Shaky Backups:

22. Felix Jones, DAL, Age: 21

Averaging a ridiculous 8.9 YPC this season, Felix Jones has been a great compliment to the gutsy running of Barber. Jones is a speedster who excels at getting to the edge and breaking it long. He will not have a full load anytime soon, but he is a capable bye week fill in with large upside.

23. Ryan Grant, GB, 25

Grant was expected by many to be a top 10 RB this season. So far he has averaged 3.4 YPC, less than 60 yards per game and has registered 0 TDs. Although there is still some nice upside with Grant, he needs to start producing again before I can rank him higher.

24. Larry Johnson, KC, Age: 28

I am not a fan of LJ's future - I see him falling much as Shaun Alexander did in 2007. Although LJ has had a couple nice games this season, he has had plenty of stinkers. His 4 most recent game YPC averages are 1.8, 5.0, 7.1 and 0.3. This sort of wild inconsistency is both a product of the terrible offensive line play in KC as well as Johnson breaking down from his high career workload. Start him if you need him, but I would recommend selling while he still has some value left.

25. Tim Hightower, ARI, Age: 22

Hightower is the heir apparent to the throne in Arizona. Edge is still getting the lions share of the carries, but has lost goal line work to the rookie and Hightower seems to have the ability to handle the load when his time comes. For right now its nice that he has startable flex value due to his goal line work.

26. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT, Age: 21

I think Mendenhall has a bright future as the feature back of the Steelers. He has fantastic lateral mobility coupled with serious between the tackles power. He has great vision and should be a very solid starter for a long time once he wins the job. I should probably rank him higher, but his shoulder injury and the entrenched status of Parker as the starter leave him this low.

27. DeAngelo Williams, CAR, Age: 25

Williams has a lot of talent. He is more of a speed back than a power runner, but he makes a nice compliment to Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. The Panthers will try and hold onto both runners if possible, and if the situation remains as it is then Williams will be a flex RB play for the foreseeable future. If he gets traded to a RB needy team in the offseason he could see a nice bump in value.

Stash Em:

28. Kevin Smith, DET, Age: 21

Kevin Smith was unable to hold off Rudi Johnson for the starting role in Detroit and is now stuck in a committee. I like Smiths running style, and although he isn't the fastest runner he has good vision and lateral cutting ability. He fits in well with the zone blocking scheme the Lions are trying to make work right now, and I think he should outright win the starting job next year.

29. Earnest Graham, TB, Age: 28

Graham is a solid enough running back. He is average in all areas in terms of physical skills, but he really plays hard and the coaching staff in Tampa are clearly comfortable relying on him to carry the ball. He has a low upside but should get you 6-10 points a week if you need to plug him in.

30. Thomas Jones, NYJ, Age: 30

Jones is a well rounded, solid running back. He gets around 16-20 carries a game and is productive with them, averaging 3.8 YPC this season with 3 TDs. His age is a concern at this point, but you didnt draft him expecting him to be a long term stud right?

31. Julius Jones, SEA, Age: 27

JJ has had a couple decent games this season for the Seahawks, but mostly he has shown why he lost his job in Dallas. He is an average back, who lacks breakaway speed or significant power.

32. Ray Rice, BAL, Age: 21

Rice had a really nice preaseason but the coaching staff does not seem to have much faith in him yet. He is currently the RB3 for the Ravens as the surprising Le'ron Mcclain has taken over the RB2 duties. Rice is a good all around player but lacks serious burner speed. A good way to think of him is that he is a "gamer"....he plays hard and can do a lot of things well but he will never be a stud.

33. Laurence Maroney, NE, Age: 23

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Maroney was on a lot of top 10 RB lists last year, but he has fallen off in a big way. He is getting 5-8 carries a game and is part of 4 person committee running the ball for the Patriots right now. I would stay far away unless you really love his physical talents (which are prodigous), in which case buy him on the cheap and stash him on your bench while you pray for him to get traded.

Long Shots:

34. Lendale White, TEN, Age: 25

Color me unimpressed by White and his plodding ways. He is unlikely to regain a starting position in the league now or in the future, which limits him to a short yardage, 3rd down role. He will score you a TD per week fairly consistently this season as a flex play, but I would sell "high" while he has value as a TD vulture.

35. Michael Bush, OAK, Age: 24

Bush is huge, quick and can catch the ball extremelly well out of the backfield. He is a well rounded back but currently stuck behind Fargas and Mcfadden in the black hole that is Oakland. Grab him and hold him long term - the Chargers tried to trade for him this season at the deadline but were rebuffed......chances are good he'll get traded to a RB needy team on draft day.

36. Ryan Torain, Den, Age: 22

Ryan "the Train" Torain is looking like the next big RB to come out of Denver. When I watch him run I see him as a 1 cut and go type guy. This is perfect for Denver's zone blocking scheme and I think we will see some great things from him once he comes back from his elbow injury. Keep a close eye on him in coming weeks.

More rankings to come soon........

Quarterback Dynasty Values

Studs:

1. Drew Brees, NO, Age: 29

Brees has been getting it done even with sub par talent at WR for the last 5 weeks. He is on pace to go over 4,000 yards this season and now he has Colston back. Brees is set for the foreseeable future to continue his domination.

2. Jay Cutler, DEN, Age: 25

He has really come on this season and has phenomenal rapport with his main man: Brandon Marshall. With the emergence of Eddie Royal in the WR2 position and Tony Scheffler at TE, Cutler has a full compliment of weapons.

3. Peyton Manning, IND, Age: 32

Harrison is back at least for this season, and Manning is back in his groove. When he is playing at his best nobody can touch him....unfortunately he isn't always playing his best these days.

4. Tony Romo, DAL, Age: 28

Currently has the best compliment of weapons around him of any QB in the league, and with the addition of Roy Williams it only gets stronger.

5. Tom Brady, NE, Age: 31

He'll be back next season and being a strong pocket passer shouldn't suffer too much from his knee surgery. The knee may limit his mobility a bit, but he should still have Moss and Welker to throw to so he should get back in stride quickly.

Strong Starters:

6. Aaron Rodgers, GB, Age: 24

Jennings has emerged as one of the leagues top receivers, and Driver has a few good years left in him. Rodgers has been playing tough, and playing well. He is young and poised for a long successful career.

7. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, Age: 26

Big Ben has a solid team around him and although he doesn't always have the gaudiest numbers he is quite consistent.

8. Philip Rivers, SD, Age: 26

Rivers has a solid running game to keep the pressure off him, and has been throwing the ball very well this season. He has enough weapons around him to keep his numbers up.

Shaky Starters:

9. Donovan Mcnabb, PHL, Age: 31

Mcnabb is throwing to a second rate receiving core, but at least the emergence of Desean Jackson has given him one legit target to throw to. Mcnabb is playing at a very high level right now, but Westbrooks constant injuries couple with Mcnabb's history of injuries makes him a shaky starter to rely on.

10. Kurt Warner, ARI, Age: 37

Warner is an anomaly. He is really pushing the age envelope but still playing incredibly well. He is shaky because of his age and long term status - he will be playing as a top 5 QB for at least the rest of this year. While this makes him hard to rank, I'm putting him here and trusting that people will take his age into account when drafting or trading for him. Contenders buy, builders sell.

11. Eli Manning, NYG, Age: 27

Let me start by saying that I am not an Eli Manning fan. I think he makes too many mental mistakes, and he will certainly never be as good as his big brother. With that said, the lesser manning will be throwing to Plaxico Burress for a few years and has decent value if you can get over his multiple INT performances every now and then.

12. Matt Schaub, HOU, Age: 27

Schaub and Andre Johnson have really connected in the last couple years. They are both entering prime portions of their career and I expect big things from both of them. Sometimes prone to throwing too many picks, Schaub should be able to shake it off and put up big numbers.

13. Matt Ryan, ATL, Age: 23

Ryan doesn't look, act or play like a rookie. He has poise and makes all of the plays he needs to. There is a ton of upside, and if he can continue his consistent climb he will be top 10 soon enough.

14. David Garrard, JAX, Age: 30

Garrard doesnt have a lot of up or downside. He is a pretty consistent QB who is not prone to mistakes or INT's. He will get you consistent points but never win seasons for you.

Strong Backups:

15. Jason Campbell, WAS, Age: 26

I would like to rank Campbell higher, because I think he has a great skill set and can be a top QB in the NFL. Unfortunately he has been forced to learn too many different offenses recently and it may be showing through in his inconsistent play. Once I see some more consistency I will push him up.

16. Carson Palmer, CIN, Age: 29

Palmer didn't look very good before his elbow injury, and his elbow injury doesn't look good in and of itself. Chad Johnson may be on the decline and there is no running game to speak of for the Bengals right now or for the foreseeable future.

17. Trent Edwards, BUF, Age: 25

Edwards is a solid QB. He has been averaging around 200 yards and 1 TD per game. He is a better real life QB than fantasy QB. He will not be putting up big numbers with regularity, but he is a great QB to have as a backup on your bench for bye weeks and injury filler.

Shaky Backups:

18. Derek Anderson, CLE, Age: 25

Huge job security concerns with Quinn pushing to play. If Anderson can keep getting long completions to Braylon Edwards and remain on top of his game he has a chance to put up nice numbers.

19. Jake Delhomme, CAR, Age: 33

Delhomme is looking to have recovered nicely from his surgery. Steve Smith is still tearing secondaries to shreds and Delhomme is doing a great job of getting him the ball. With Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams as a two headed backfield monster keeping pressure off of him Delhomme should have a nice year.

20. Brett Favre, NYJ, Age: 39

Favre is giving it a hell of a go this year. He will give you a chance at a huge game every week and is a great play if you don't have a solid starter. He is ranked this low because of the obvious impending retirement.

21. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA, Age: 33

Lacking WRs and a solid line, Hasselbeck is having a rough season. He is 33 and I don't see much future upside for him.

22. Kyle Orton, CHI, Age: 25

Hes making throws all over the field to his motley WR crew. There is a lot of risk here, but at this point in the rankings he is a solid buy.

Stash Em:

23. Marc Bulger, STL, Age: 31

The Rams are awful this year, and will need to do some major rebuilding in the offseason. If they do manage to get something going on offense next year Bulger still has tools in Holt and the rookie Avery he can utilize.

24. Vince Young, TEN, Age: 25

Even when he was starting Young wasn't really getting it done on the field. Hopefully he will work out whatever issues he had before he goes back in. His upside is pretty low in fantasy terms, as he has never been a fantasy stud.

25. Jamarcus Russell, OAK, Age: 23

Big arm, big contract, small results. Russell has not developed as rapidly as the Raiders may have hoped. He has a ways to go before we can tell if he will be a startable fantasy QB.

26. Joe Flacco

27. J.T. O'Sullivan

28. Matt Leinart

29. Drew Stanton

Longshots:

30. Chad Henne

31. Sage Rosenfels

32. Kevin Kolb

33. Tarvaris Jackson

34. J.P. Losman

35. Chad Pennington

More to come next week......

Week 7 Pump and Dump

Pump: 

Marques Colston: Colston is back from injury and Brees will hit his favorite target repeatedly this weekend. 

Forecast: 7-8 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Muhsin Muhammad: Moose is going to play this week, and his team is facing New Orleans. Carolina has a stout run defense but I expect Brees to exploit them through the air. Delhomme will have to respond and Steve Smith will be double covered a lot. This will leave Moose with a lot of single coverage, and this season Delhomme has showed a willingness to find his aging WR2. 

Forecast: 5 receptions, 80 yards

Chad Pennington: The fins get the tough Ravens D this week. I highly doubt their wildcat formation or run game will carry the day, and after the torching through the air by Indy last week I expect a lot more action from Penny this weekend than he usually sees. 

Forecast: 20 for 35, 200 yards, 2 TD's

Marion Barber: Some people are doubting whether Brad Johnson will be able to throw enough to keep defenses from stacking eight and nine men in the box - I am not one of those people. Brad Johnson may be mostly immobile, but he has some serious weapons running around on the field in front of him and should be able to move the ball through the air in short productive bursts. Barber will see a huge workload with Felix Jones out and B.Johnson at the helm. 

Forecast: 25 carries, 120 yards, 10 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD

Jonathan Stewart: New Orleans may have held AP in check, but I don't see a repeat of their success against the ground game of Carolina. Stewart and D.Williams will light it up this weekend, but I like Stewart and his bruising style against the undersized New Orleans line. 

Forecast: 15 carries, 90 yards, 2 receptions, 15 yards, 2 TDs

Dump:

Reggie Bush: This is the week Bush's abysmal YPC average catches him by the short hairs and he doesnt pull out a big play to save his fantasy day. Carolina has a very good defense and will hold Bush in check all day. In PPR leagues you still have to start him for his pretty much guaranteed 8-10 receptions, but in other leagues consider benching him if you have a better option. 

Forecast: 15 carries, 45 yards, 8 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Adrian Peterson: Peterson has been looking extremely mortal this season and he goes up against the Bears defense this weekend. The Bears are having serious depth issues with their secondary and I expect the Vikings to air it out for most of the day. The result will be another pedantic outing by All Day. 

Forecast: 17 carries, 65 yards, 3 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Terrell Owens: Owens was crying this week over the prospect of Johson at QB - that should be all you need to know about the weekend TO is about to suffer through. It wouldnt surprise me to see his catch total go up from past weeks, but the 7-10 yard routes he will be running won't add up to a big day statistically. 

Forecast: 7 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs

Greg Jennings: The long play specialist will find the Indy Cover 2 to be troublesome this weekend. Jennings averages over 19 yards per reception, but will have his deep routes taken away. Rodgers should still find him on some intermediate routes into the zone coverage, but the leading fantasy receiver will have a slow day overall. He might sneak in a TD, but I doubt it. 

Forecast: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben has been getting hit a lot lately. The Bengals have an underrated secondary but can be run on. The Steelers will use Mewelde Moore and their solid run blocking line to push the ball down the field. Big Ben will get the leftovers and underneath routes. 

Forecast: 14 for 22, 165 yards, 1 TD

Week 7 Musings

A few thoughts:

Willie Parker looks like he is going to be out or at least limited this week. Put Mewelde Moore in your starting lineups with confidence and play him as a RB2/3 this week. The Bengals are giving up the fifth most rushing yards per game and Moore should get plenty of chances. 

Marques Colston is likely to play this week, and this drops the value of stand in start Lance Moore. Moore will likely see his targets cut in half immediately, and his value should be lowered accordingly. Moore still makes a nice flex play at WR but nothing more going forward. 

This will likely be Chris Perry's final chance to show something to the Bengals coaches, and he needs to do it against a stout Pittsburch defense. God speed Mr. Perry - we'll see you on the fantasy bench again soon I suspect! Oh and in case you were wondering whether Cedric Benson or Kenny Watson was a good pickup at this point.......no. Just no. 

Start Bernard Berrian this week against a suspect Bears secondary. Sidney Rice claims he expects to play but his knee issue is still lingering and Berrian has used the injury time to build a nice rapport with Gus Frerotte. Don't fret all you Sidney Rice owners; Frerotte is not the long term solution in Minnnesota (neither is Tarvaris Jackson in my view) so there will be a chance (next year at the latest) for Rice to get back in the swing of things with his QB. 

This week will be a great test for rookie Chris Johnson. He is going against the third worst run defense in Kansas City and needs to put up some great numbers to make up for his last couple outings. Admittedly the Vikings and Ravens are stout defenses, but Johnson's 3.6 and 2.4 YPC averages in those games leave a lot to be desired. 

Ryan Torain may make an appearance this week in what is sure to be severly limited action. Torain was the star of Broncos training camp and if he is available on your waiver wire go grab him immediately....then ask yourself whether your league is competitive enough to be worth your time. 

Oakland makes a change at WR with the demotion of Ronald Curry in favor of rookie WR Chad Schilens, a seventh round pick. Schilens has nice measurables at 6-4 and  225 pds, but wait for some production from this offense before running out and dropping someone of value for Schilens. Could he be the next Colston?

Miami coaches have been talking up rookie wideout Brandon London recently. He is 6'4 and 210 pounds, so he would make a great prototype WR for the Dolphins if it turns out he can actually play. Ginn hasn't turned the corner yet as a receiver, and at 6'4 London has a chance to come in and immediately get red zone looks on fade routes and jump balls. If you are desperate for WR prospects then snatch him up, but for most I would caution waiting to get some playing time and production from him before biting.